WILLAPA GAMES PLAYED

WILLAPA GAMES PLAYED

Hi everyone,

This is a update e mail on the CR 102 used to set the 2014 Willapa Commercial seasons. Frankly I needed help as I knew that misrepresentations were rather substantial by District 17 staff but as my Mom said when I was a kid " knowing and showing are two different things. "  So thanks to the guys who helped me and here is what Mr. Hughes put forth!

" Results in an ex-vessel value of $594K versus an ex-vessel value of $705K if we used the 2013 seasons. These are relative values because there is very small number of unmarked hatchery fish included in the calculations that the commercial sector would be required to release. "

" Provides the recreational sector with 38% of the Chinook harvest and 22% of the Coho harvest. This compares to the average from 2003-2012 of 34% of the Chinook and 10% of the Coho. "

The reveiw below is from a citizen who reviewed just those TWO lines above. More to come later but frankly the review speaks volumes as to the attempts by D 17 staff to misrepresent the 2014 Commercial CR 102. ( WAC's for the commercial season )

I feel you should be aware that we believe the presentation materials and discussion points circulated with the Willapa model and 2014 CR 102 are inaccurate and will be considered misleading by members of the public.

The bullet points in the presentation implies that the commercial season was cut substantially this year versus last using ex vessel sales projections created by inserting the 2013 season in the model and comparing it with the same for the proposed 2014 season.   WDFW's presentation states:

Results in an ex-vessel value of $594K versus an ex-vessel value of $705K if we used the 2013 seasons. These are relative values because there is very small number of unmarked hatchery fish included in the calculations that the commercial sector would be required to release.

The model uses Cell X51 in calculating ex vessel values. We believe this cell has a formula problem (missing parenthesis) that values coho at approximately $1 per fish. If corrected, we believe the ex-vessel value for the proposed season in the 2014 CR 102 is $743,832.

More concerning, a comparison for sport harvest in the next bullet point implies the rec fisher will catch more fish in 2014 than previously. WDFW's presentation states:

Provides the recreational sector with 38% of the Chinook harvest and 22% of the Coho harvest. This compares to the average from 2003-2012 of 34% of the Chinook and 10% of the Coho.

The Department's decision to create a 10 year average and insert it into the presentation following the commercial "this year versus last" does not provide the viewer the similar comparison that is implied. Substituting a decade long average for the 2013 percentage of harvest substantially lowered the percentage of sport harvest from 2013 creating an impression of a dramatic increase occurring in sport harvest with the 2014 proposal. When one compares the 31.3% of the coho harvest by sports last year with the 22% expected in the 2014 season proposal it shows sports fishers will actually lose 9.3% to the commercial interests for coho this year.

The Department forecasts show a significant increase in returning Coho salmon that many challenge as unrealistically high. The increased forecast results in the model predicting a dramatic increase in the numbers of Coho returning to Willapa Bay in 2014 and therefore, more Coho being caught this year than last by both sports and commercials. Using "impacts" or the number of fish actually expected to be caught by the model, the following table shows commercial harvest of Chinook is down from 2013 and the sport catch is projected higher. However, when coho numbers are combined with Chinook, the model shows the 2014 proposed season for commercial nets will result in a impact gain for the commercials of 14,112 and only 2024 for the sport sector.  

                        *2013            **2014            2014 Difference

Nets Chinook  15,303          12,026             -3,277

Sport Chinook 5870              6,809               939

Nets coho        11545              28,934        17,389

Sport coho       5267                  6,352         1,085

Nets +/- Total Fish                                    14,112

Sport =/- Total Fish                                    2,024

*Chinook & Coho "Harvest info" tabs

** WB Planning Model 2014 tabs

The Willapa planning model predicts the 2014 season proposal will result in commercial and sport interests increasing harvest by 16,136 total fish (Chinook & Coho combined). Of that number, 87% of the increase in combined catch numbers will incur on the commercial side and only 13% on the sport side. Using a comparison of the fish counts expected to be caught this year versus last leaves an opposite perception than the one created by WDFW using a 10 year average in percentages and ex vessel sales that were miscalculated by a formula error in the model.

This commentary relates the Willapa planning model supplied by WDFW and reportedly used when creating the season installed in the CR 102 for 2014.  XXXXXXXX   has repeatedly expressed numerous other concerns over other problems in the model that effect its reliability. Those concerns remain unchanged.

Dave  Cool

No comments (Add your own)

Add a New Comment


code
 

Comment Guidelines: No HTML is allowed. Off-topic or inappropriate comments will be edited or deleted. Thanks.