QIN DO OK ON CHINOOK BUT COHO A NO SHOW!
My recent e mail had several folks concerned over
the numbers Chinook harvested by the QIN.
The QIN harvest came in above expectations for Chinook but Coho are a no show.
Now in the big picture the tribal 2 day set says .............. really nothing
other than the QIN need to be keenly aware that the Chinook staging hard in the
lower reaches and they could blow through the projected harvest numbers, which
would not be a good thing. The other side is maybe the run is larger or early
or just about anything so one waits to see.
Now Coho is different. A local gentlemen, whose
handle is Softbite, has been bringing forth that the ocean PDO is tanking. Below
is a down & dirty description of the PDO for those not familiar with the
term. Then despite the rain we are well below average flows. Also the early
rain scooted the fish holding in tidewater upstream. It is not uncommon in dry years for Coho just
park and wait for a weather change to before doing anything. The other side of
the coin is that the ocean Coho fishery has been under what was modeled and it
came up short on Coho is the thought of many folks. Add to the fact last year we caught a lot of 4
to 5 lb Coho both male & female, which is just weird. Then this year Coho
jacks appear to be scarce. Additionally when we do find Coho this year many are
the 4 to 5 lb range ( males so far ) so it begs the question, "is the run going
to be much smaller than forecast" ? Maybe yes / maybe no but I will stick
my neck out and say Coho are going to be short. Now with the runsize forecast we have lots of room before the numbers drop
below escapement so no need to panic.
The one thing I am certain of is the timeline for
the Coho run is not going to be what we call "normal" and one needs
to be adaptive for timing and methods. Going to be a interesting couple of
months to be sure.
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
is a robust, recurring pattern of ocean-atmosphere climate variability centered
over the mid-latitude Pacific basin. The PDO is detected as warm or cool
surface waters in the Pacific
Ocean, north of 20° N. Over the past century, the
amplitude of this climate pattern has varied irregularly at
interannual-to-interdecadal time scales. There is evidence of reversals in the
prevailing polarity of the oscillation occurring around 1925, 1947, and 1977;
the last two reversals corresponded with dramatic shifts in salmon production
regimes in the North Pacific Ocean. This climate pattern also affects coastal
sea and continental surface air temperatures from Alaska to California.
During a "warm", or
"positive", phase, the west Pacific becomes cooler and part of the
eastern ocean warms; during a "cool" or "negative" phase,
the opposite pattern occurs. The Pacific (inter-)decadal oscillation was named
by Steven R. Hare, who noticed it while studying salmon production
pattern results in 1997.
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation index is
the leading empirical orthogonal function (EOF)
of monthly sea surface temperature anomalies
(SSTA) over the North Pacific (poleward of 20° N) after the global mean
SST has been removed, the PDO index is the standardized principal component time
PDO signal has been reconstructed to 1661 through tree-ring chronologies in
the Baja California area.
Posted on Thu, September 17, 2015
by Dave Hamilton