WILLAPA & THE A-HA MODEL
Sorry about the e mail blizzard but this element of
the Willapa Management Plan is the least understood but ultimately extremely
important. It is not a "silver bullet " but rather a tool that allows
you to develop a plan around the hatchery / wild / harvest
thing. Last meeting of the AD HOC WDFW Staff let all know that Andy Appleby
would be at the next meeting to explain the AHA model but it is my
understanding that they are running a little late in getting it done with
Willapa Data inputted. So here is the abstract and read away so one can be prepared. If you want the complete A-HA model paper I only have it in a PDF so e mail me and I will get it to you.
All-H Analyzer (AHA model) is a tool that allows salmon managers to
simultaneously evaluate the impact that habitat restoration (or degradation),
changes in fisheries, or changes in hatchery operation would have on a specific
fish population or stock. This paper presents the (idealized) results of how
AHA can be used to set a long-term salmon restoration, recovery, and fishery
plan. It takes the process from initial goal setting, through exploring how
those goals can be evaluated by AHA, and then how they can be accomplished. The
results of implementation of various options are evaluated with AHA both in
terms of “numerical” escapement to the spawning grounds, the amount and
direction of gene flow, and the number of fish harvested. In this way, activities
can be prioritized, planned, carried out, and evaluated against an expected
response. It is also possible to evaluate “what-if” scenarios to better plan
multiple activities within a watershed.
The AHA model is an
outgrowth of the work of the Hatchery Scientific Review group in Washington,
including J. Scott, C. Busack, P. Seidel, L. Mobrand, D. Campton, C. Mahnken, T.
Flagg, and T. Evelyn. Special thanks to L. Mobrand who not only developed the
actual spreadsheet model, but also constantly refined the model, its outputs,
and displays to more clearly develop options and present results.
Posted on Tue, November 18, 2014
by Dave Hamilton